Paul Pogba, Kylian Mbappé & Antonio Rüdiger
In 1995, the Bosman ruling changed the landscape of football forever. Essentially, the rule states that football players can move to a new club at the end of their contract without their current club receiving a mandatory transfer fee. Additionally, these aforementioned players can agree a pre-contract with their future club if they have six months or less remaining on their current deal.
It may sound hard to believe when analysed with modern sensibilities, but, before the Bosman ruling came into effect, out-of-contract footballers did not have the freedom to simply choose their next club following the expiry of a contract. Football clubs in most parts of Europe could prevent players from joining new clubs, even if their contracts had expired. Disputes would often be referred to a nation's football association or, as was the case in British football, "Transfer Tribunals" in order to resolve any conflicts between player and club.
HISTORY OF THE BOSMAN RULING
The ruling came into effect after Belgian club RFC Liège effectively blocked the transfer of Jean-Marc Bosman to French club USL Dunkerque in 1990 by demanding that the Dunkirk-based outfit pay €500,000 to sign Bosman — an outrageous sum for a second division side at the time, particularly for an out-of-contract player. Bosman subsequently filed suit against RFC Liège, the Union Royale Belge des Sociétés de Football-Association (the Royal Belgian football association, better known as the RBFA or URBSFA), and UEFA in the European Court of Justice, citing Article 17 of FIFA regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players which aims to protect the contractual stability of employment relations between players and clubs, as well as citing the 1957 Treaty of Rome — specifically Article 48 of said Treaty — which covered the free movement of workers within the European Economic Community.
Despite the best efforts of RFC Liège, the URBSFA and UEFA, the court ruled in favour of Bosman, stating that the system in place restricted the free movement of workers as declared in the Treaty of the functioning of the European Union. This was seen as a major victory for football players as it granted them far more control over their futures and, naturally, they felt more comfortable running down their contracts and finding new clubs.
Edgar Davids was famously the first superstar calibre player to take advantage of the Bosman ruling, leaving Ajax for AC Milan in 1996. Fellow Dutchman Patrick Kluivert followed the exact same path a year later when he too left Amsterdam for Milan. Other notable names to have moved over the years thanks to the Bosman ruling include Steve McManaman from Liverpool to Real Madrid in 1999, Michael Ballack from Bayern Munich to Chelsea in 2006 and, infamously, Robert Lewandowski from Borussia Dortmund to Bayern Munich in 2014.
In the grand scheme of the transfer market, however, these deals have been fairly few and far between. Selling clubs are reluctant to let quality players leave without a fee so they'll often push for a transfer a year or two before the contract expires, often at a much lower price than that player's market value would usually dictate. Players have also tended to accept these moves so as not to risk losing the option to move to a bigger club in the event that said club pursues other targets as opposed to waiting for the player's contract to expire. Recently, however, we've seen a rise in both the quantity and quality of players moving as free agents, with 2022 representing a truly elite crop of free agents.
FREE-FOR-ALL
Antonio Rüdiger, Kylian Mbappé and Paul Pogba are a few of the key names whose contracts will be expiring this summer. Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel confirmed that Rüdiger would be leaving the European champions at the end of his contract after failing to agree a new deal to extend his stay in London. According to the oft-reliable Fabrizio Romano and David Ornstein, the German centre-back has agreed a deal to join Real Madrid on a four-year contract upon the expiry of his current Chelsea deal. Kylian Mbappé has also been strongly linked with a move to Real Madrid. A number of reports have emerged indicating that the Spanish giants are Mbappé's dream club and that he's enamoured with the idea of becoming the next great icon of the Spanish capital. Paris Saint-Germain still believe there's a chance that the French superstar renews his stay in his hometown, but as time continues to pass without a new agreement, the likelihood of the World Cup winner staying in Paris gradually wanes. This would represent two high-profile acquisitions for Los Blancos, with both arriving without a transfer fee but likely on considerably high wages.
Manchester United's Paul Pogba
Another player who has been linked with the Spanish champions for a number of years is Manchester United's Paul Pogba. However, a move to the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium seems increasingly unlikely for the Frenchman as Real Madrid have already bolstered their midfield options in recent seasons. The arrival of Eduardo Camavinga from Stade Rennais and the continued development of Federico Valverde have given Real Madrid young, energetic options in midfield who will likely serve as long-term replacements for Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić who are 32 and 36 years old, respectively. The 13-time European Cup winners have also been linked with a move for highly-rated Monaco midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni. The 22-year-old midfield destroyer is one of the most sought-after players in Europe at the moment, with Premier League giants such as Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all registering an interest in the France international. Even if Real Madrid fail to secure his signature, it's a good indication of the type of player the club will likely pursue this summer. Casemiro is 30 years old so he likely still has a few prime years left, but midfield destroyers tend to decline more rapidly than creators and it's always advisable to start planning for the future.
The question remains, where does the future lie for Paul Pogba? Currently, it appears most likely that the Frenchman will join either Juventus or Paris Saint-Germain. A potential move to local rivals Manchester City has been mentioned, but these suggestions have failed to gather real steam and City likely have positions of greater concern to address. Italian reporter Gianluca Di Marzio recently reported that Manchester United have currently offered the most lucrative deal to Paul Pogba, which would simply be a renewal of his current terms as far as his weekly wages are concerned. He's also suggested that a move to PSG would depend on whether a prospective new coach would like the United midfielder, presuming Mauricio Pochettino is relieved of his duties. As things stand, there does appear to be the slight possibility that Pogba stays at Old Trafford considering the situation regarding potential suitors and the current state of his contract, but evidently nothing is guaranteed. As his contract is expiring, the power remains in his hands, and that will always be an advantageous position for a player.
There are other high-quality footballers who have refused to sign new deals at their current clubs and have all but agreed terms to join other clubs this summer. Ajax's Noussair Mazraoui is set for a move to Germany, joining Bayern Munich and bolstering the squad's options following the Bavarians' tenth consecutive Bundesliga title but a humiliating exit from the Champions League. He may soon be joined by teammate Ryan Gravenberch, but Ajax are currently unimpressed by Bayern's attempts to lower the reported €30 million asking-price Ajax have set for the Dutchman to a smaller fee with a considerable portion of that fee being paid in add-ons. With his contract expiring next year, it's a situation to be monitored.
Meanwhile, as has been widely reported, AC Milan's Franck Kessié will join FC Barcelona this summer following the expiry of his current deal with the 7-time European Cup winners. The Rossoneri appeared willing to accept Kessié's terms on his salary, but reportedly baulked at the demands made by his agent with regards to agent fees. As such, they walked way from a potential agreement and this gave Barcelona the opportunity to swoop in and acquire the services of the Ivorian midfielder without the burden of a transfer fee.
That said, Barça have their own contractual dilemma to deal with in the form of Ousmane Dembélé. The Frenchman has resisted signing a new deal in Catalunya as Barcelona seek to tie him down for the foreseeable future whilst easing their ongoing financial woes. Dembélé has been strongly linked with a move to Paris Saint-Germain, but nothing has been confirmed. In January, Barcelona had stated that the mercurial winger would have to leave the club in that winter transfer window or risk not being considered for matchday squads for the rest of the season after refusing to sign a new contract, but such a move did not materialise and the France international has still featured for the Blaugrana, including a masterful display against Real Madrid at the Bernabéu. Dembélé's situation remains uncertain, but the ball is certainly in his court as the summer transfer window approaches.
As can be seen by these situations, an expiring contract places the power into the hands of the players. In the absence of a transfer fee, the number of clubs a player can choose from increases as more clubs have the purchasing power to acquire the player's services. As a result, a player can maximise their potential earnings through negotiating larger signing bonuses, potential wage increases and generous performance-based incentives amongst other things. Player agents also benefit greatly from these free transfers as they have the leverage to command exorbitant agent fees, using the justification of the lack of a transfer fee and the part they play in ensuring a deal is completed.
Ultimately, this works out to be cheaper for a buying club considering the astronomical transfer fees we see in football today. There is the risk of losing out on a player in the event that another club decides to pursue the player before the expiry of their deal, but when a club is almost certain that a player only wants to join them — as is the case with Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid — exercising patience is the most logical path forward, especially to avoid mistakes such as those seen with the signing of Eden Hazard who only had one year remaining on his Chelsea contract when Real Madrid made the Belgian their club record signing.
So, we know why players, representatives and clubs all benefit from free agent signings, but what events and circumstances catalysed the sharp rise in this form of player movement, and is this likely to be the future of football?
THE NEW NORMAL
Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne
When COVID-19 first emerged, few could've predicted just how impactful it would be in all facets of life and how society would need to permanently adjust to the "new normal". The footballing world was not spared from these wholesale changes and the sport is still adjusting to the effects of the pandemic. The ease with which the virus was spreading and the lack of knowledge surrounding it led to the shutdown of sporting events and, consequently, a major disruption in revenue for football clubs around the world. When football did eventually return, it was without the presence of fans and, as such, ticketing revenue did not return. This fundamentally changed how clubs had to operate within the transfer market and how they would approach the renewal of contracts for their own players.
Football clubs essentially became less willing and able to spend large sums of money on players due to significant losses in revenue and the overall instability of the global economy as a result of the pandemic. The uncertainty surrounding just how long this pandemic would last for, as well as how stringent the preventative measures would be, forced many to be far more cautious about how they spent their money and on whom they spent it. Ultimately, clubs — particularly the smaller ones — were less keen on offering new deals to current players with time left on their contracts in the hope that they would still be open to signing new contracts the following year once things were hopefully back to normal. This was an extremely risky strategy, but general risk-assessment did largely indicate that this strategy was a financial necessity considering the unprecedented situation in which football found itself.
A combination of all of these factors benefitted the more financially powerful clubs. They had the means to offer new contracts to the players they wanted to keep, and could also benefit from waiting until the contracts of potential acquisitions ran down and acquire those players on massively reduced fees or as free agents. As the financial packages of transfers are amortised, a free transfer comes with significant savings for a buying club. COVID-19 evidently played a major part in creating a ripple effect in the transfer market that may cause irreversible changes to how clubs operate, but did the virus play the biggest part in this?
SHOW ME THE MONEY
Whilst the impact of COVID-19 was devastating and far-reaching, it was far from the only factor leading to the increased prevalence of high-profile free transfers in football. The sharp rise in transfer fees has incentivised clubs to pursue free agents as opposed to paying enormous fees for players who would likely want to join them anyway or players for whom they can find a cheaper alternative of similar quality. Many people tend to attribute PSG's €222 million signing of Neymar as the catalyst for the extreme rise in asking prices and transfer fees, which may be a fair observation. That said, the market was already trending in that direction. Just a year prior, Manchester United spent €105 million to take Paul Pogba back to Old Trafford — a world record fee at the time. Of course, Neymar's fee was more than twice this amount, but it's evident that these large sums were already becoming more prevalent in the game.
A recent example of the huge asking prices being placed on players by football clubs is the £150 million West Ham United are demanding for Declan Rice. Now, realistically, this isn't really an "asking price" per se, but rather the club's way of discouraging other clubs from making bids and essentially stating that Declan Rice is not for sale. However, with Rice's contract practically expiring in 2025, considering West Ham's option to extend his contract from 2024 to 2025, it's likely that this asking price will need to decrease significantly if the Hammers are to receive a fee that reflects Rice's quality and value to the club, otherwise they may run the risk of losing him for free; an option that is becoming increasingly attractive to buying clubs.
It does go without saying that free agency won't always be the most attractive option for stars looking to leave their current club. Players have often signed long-term deals on high wages, either looking for financial security or hoping that the club would eventually match the player's ambition. The most obvious example is that of Tottenham Hotspur's Harry Kane. In 2018, the England national team captain signed a six-year contract to remain in North London. Whilst the agreement did make him one of the highest-paid players in the league, it also meant that Spurs would have all the leverage should there come a time that Kane wished to leave the club with years left on his deal. This exact situation arose when Manchester City made an approach to sign the striker in the summer of 2021 in an attempt to replace the departing Sergio Agüero. However, as Harry Kane still had three years left on his contract, Tottenham were able to set an astronomically high asking price and, consequently, dissuade Man City from continuing their pursuit of the Premier League golden boot winner.
With the benefit of hindsight, Harry Kane would likely have avoided extending his stay at Tottenham Hotspur or, at the very least, attempted to include a realistic release clause into his contract in order to give him more control over his future, and that's ultimately what it boils down to. Kylian Mbappé is now in complete control of his own future and that allows him to take his time in making his decision. Following the summer of 2022, the Parisien superstar will certainly be one of the highest salary earners in world football, and he may very well break records for signing bonuses given to a player.
Mbappé is already one of the faces of the sport, but he may also become the face of a revolution occurring in football: the player empowerment era.
THE PLAYER EMPOWERMENT ERA
LeBron James, Kevin Durant & Kawhi Leonard
It has often been said that we are living in the player empowerment era in the NFL and, more notably, the NBA. Players have become increasingly aware that the product does not survive without them and, as such, they should hold the true power in terms of where they want to play. For this reason, free agency is always one of the most anticipated times of the year and high-profile free agents often hit the market, especially in the NBA.
LeBron James — the most popular basketball player since Michael Jordan — has changed teams on three different occasions as a free agent and has always been able to choose where he wants to go and negotiate the type of deal he wants. His move from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Miami Heat was a particularly infamous move and is often attributed as the inciting incident that led to the creation of so-called "superteams" in the NBA (although many dispute that this may have actually been a result of the formation of the 2008 Boston Celtics). Kevin Durant has twice changed teams during free agency, most infamously joining the Golden State Warriors in 2016 who had just completed a record 73-win season and narrowly lost in the NBA Finals. Durant would then sign for the Brooklyn Nets in 2019, joining forces with longtime friend Kyrie Irving.
We've also seen instances of players forcing trades, such as Anthony Davis requesting a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers and James Harden forcing two separate trades in consecutive seasons. This tactic is so effective for NBA players due to the fear of organisations losing superstar players and receiving nothing in return. This has generally been the approach in football (soccer), when clubs sell players at a cut-price to avoid losing them for nothing. Footballers have tended to be open to such deals, even in the event that they've had to join a club that wouldn't necessarily be their first choice. But as time has progressed, the level of player power seen in the NBA has seemingly trickled into football and resulted in more superstars seeing out their contracts and joining their preferred clubs.
Now, the NBA has attempted to combat the regularity of player movement by modifying the maximum contracts players can receive, such as allowing incumbent teams to dedicate a higher percentage of their salary cap to players in order to convince them to re-sign with the team. Additionally, the league allows teams to negotiate new deals with their players a year before that player is set to hit free agency. However, for many players, the financial differences are negligible and they would prefer to play in a bigger market like Los Angeles or Miami, whilst also playing for a better team with a greater chance of immediate success.
The league has also attempted to prevent players from negotiating with new teams prior to the start of free agency by enforcing tampering violations. I use “enforcing” very generously here, because Commissioner Adam Silver has not been particularly successful in combating tampering considering how rampant it is around the league. We may see the occasional fine handed out and a couple of teams have lost second-round picks, but that hasn’t proven to be much of a deterrent, much like in football where star players will often have verbal agreements with clubs despite not being granted permission to have any talks. Players feel empowered to manifest their own destiny and the teams acquiring these players are more than happy to help in this regard.
One may say that footballers will benefit from free agency even more than NBA players, simply because football does not have the restriction of maximum contracts and the financial disparities between certain clubs are often huge. Salary caps do exist in various forms in some countries and financial fair play attempted to prevent super-rich owners from essentially buying success, but neither of these methods have been reliably effective or strictly enforced, so much so that UEFA are set to scrap the financial fair play model and (hopefully) replace it with a more effective strategy to control spending by clubs — personally, I wouldn't hold my breath on it being successful.
In general, footballers have more control over their futures than NBA or NFL players. In football, a player can’t be forced to join a club they don’t wish to join, as they have to agree to a contract offer for a transfer to be completed. Conversely, in the NBA and NFL, players can be traded against their will to a new team unless they have a no-trade clause, which is rare for even the very best and most loyal players like Stephen Curry (although, with a legacy like that of Stephen Curry in Golden State, it's likely that a decision on his future would never be made without his green light). That said, player empowerment has meant teams are less willing to trade for a player they are uncertain wants to join them due to players’ increasing willingness to sit-out and not play, even at the expense of losing significant salary (see: Ben Simmons), or simply not playing to their highest standard and leaving upon the expiry of their contract. As time progresses, football is following the trajectory of America's major sports in more ways than one.
THE AMERICANISATION OF FOOTBALL
Football adopting aspects of American sports has been a noticeable trend for some time now. VAR is now almost universally used in the sport, much like replay reviews in the NBA or NFL, although rugby has been using replay reviews for years in the form of the television match official (TMO). Discussions have been developing surrounding changing the entire structure of football matches to 30-minute halves with a stopped clock when play is dead in an attempt to reduce time-wasting and allow teams to play the allocated number of minutes.
According to Opta, as of the writing of this article, the ball has been in-play for an average of 55 minutes and 3 seconds in the Premier League this season. Since Opta began collecting this data during the 2006-07 season, the lowest such average was seen during the 2009-10 season with the ball being in-play for just 53 minutes and 23 seconds, whereas the highest average was during the 2013-14 season at 56 minutes and 43 seconds. Even at the higher end of the scale, we generally see less than 60 minutes of actual football in a game. Perhaps stopping the clock — à la basketball or American football — would make for a more cohesive game and provide less of an incentive to time-waste so intentionally, knowing it won't make a difference to the game clock.
Beyond the on-field logistics of the physical game, we should analyse the financial influences that have led to a desire to maximise income amongst players, but also amongst teams and organisations themselves. The most obvious example would be the infamous European Super League scandal of 2021. Football has evidently been learning from the financial strength of American sports and has tried to replicate that successful model.
According to statista.com, during the 2019/20 season, the NFL produced $4.52 billion in broadcasting revenue — the most of any sports league in the world, ahead of the Premier League ($3.83 billion). The NBA was in 3rd place with $3.12 billion generated; better than every European football league, bar the Premier League. This is particularly notable considering that, despite efforts to expand globally, the NFL and NBA largely have a North American reach, whilst football is the world’s most popular sport and is the primary sport played in a number of wealthy European nations as well as nearly the entirety of Africa and South America. This serves as an indication of how American sports have financially mastered the game of maximising revenue. UEFA have taken note of this and have considered replicating a number of methods used by America's major sports leagues.
There've reportedly been discussions of changing the structure of the semi-finals of the Champions League to an NCAA March Madness Final Four style format, where each semi-final is a single game played in one city to determine the finalists. Football fans are known to be pretty averse to change, especially on this scale. Contrarily, American fans witness their sports undergo regular changes in an attempt to improve the product and these changes are often met with patience and consideration, if not near-universal acceptance. Ultimately, football is changing and will continue to change, and many objections will fall on deaf ears. As football embraces these changes, the footballers do too. They witness the marketability of superstar athletes in America and how organisations often yield to player demands; these footballers, therefore, acknowledge that they have the power to do the same in their sport. Squad turnover will likely never come close to what we see in the NBA or NFL, but free movement is certainly on the rise and it doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
CONCLUSION
Unsurprisingly, the desire within the sport to maximise income and adopt a successful new strategy has trickled down to how players approach contract renewals and their willingness to sanction a transfer, as well as how teams attempt to find the best deals for player acquisitions. Free agency provides more winners than losers, but the damage to the losers is often far more impactful than the benefits for the winners. Ultimately, humans are largely self-serving and will generally choose the option that benefits them most and, in this case, that comes in the form of running down a contract.
However, in the same way that NBA teams still trade for players, clubs will still be willing to pay large fees to sign players, but the acquisition of free agents will certainly give them more financial flexibility in the market. The risk of a prime target being transferred to another club before his contract expires will always present a risk and, therefore, transfers will always remain a part of the game. That said, all signs point towards a shift in the landscape of player contracts and the strategy that football clubs will need to adopt to circumvent these changes.
With 2023 seeing the potential expiry of the contracts of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, Jan Oblak, Serge Gnabry and Robert Lewandowski to name a few, this is just the beginning of what could be a paradigm shift in the world of football, and player empowerment is at the forefront of it.