MANCHESTER UNITED'S CASEMIRO PROBLEM

Manchester United's Casemiro

Manchester United have a serious Casemiro problem, and that problem largely stems from the fact that Casemiro is an extremely good footballer. The extent to which Casemiro improves the current Manchester United side is clear, which is exactly what makes his absences far more profound. The Brazilian has doubtless been a successful signing for the Red Devils, helping the club win the Carabao Cup final with a headed goal to open the scoring. His ball-winning is absolutely elite and there's a strong case for him being the greatest ball-winning midfielder of his generation.

Casemiro's defence — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in Europe's big 5 leagues, UCL + UEL per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

Casemiro acts as a screen for the defence and provides substantial security in front of the backline. His defensive metrics are remarkable, especially considering he's played for Real Madrid and Manchester United over the past year — two sides that regularly dominate possession. He's evidently been fantastic for Erik ten Hag's outfit, but his availability (or lack thereof) has become a serious problem for the club. When the 5-time Champions League winner is unavailable, the drop-off in the quality of United's midfield is dramatic. He's already been suspended for four Premier League matches and is set to miss a further three games following a straight red card during United's 0-0 draw vs. Southampton. He's becoming legitimately unreliable and United will need to plan accordingly in the summer.

At 31 years old, Casemiro will need an understudy and successor regardless. Erik ten Hag will need a midfielder who can learn from the Brazilian destroyer and eventually replace him as Manchester United's defensive midfielder. This player would ideally need to be young, an excellent ball-winner, a reliable passer and notably press resistant. Aerial prowess is a bonus, as Casemiro ranks in the 97th percentile for aerial duels won and 96th percentile for aerial duel win percentage, providing United with a significant set-piece threat as well as additional security against aerial threats.

We'll now take a look at potential targets for Manchester United ahead of the 2023 summer transfer window.

FLORENTINO LUÍS

S.L. Benfica's Florentino Luís

Florentino Luís has emerged as one of the most impressive holding midfielders in Europe this season. At just 23 years old, he's been the anchor of an incredibly dominant Benfica side that sits clear atop the Primeira Liga by 10 points and has a very realistic chance of reaching the UEFA Champions League final this season. But how exactly does the Portuguese midfielder compare with Casemiro.

Luís has looked tremendously comfortable in Benfica's possession-based system this season, having formed a formidable partnership with the now-departed Enzo Fernández. He's entrusted as a high-volume passer in Roger Schmidt's side, often dictating play from deep and controlling the tempo of the game.

Florentino Luís' passing — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in next 8 men's competitions per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

As shown by the data, Florentino Luís is an immensely assured passer of the ball. He excels in all of the key metrics for a holding midfielder in a possession-based system and has the passing versatility necessary for the style of play currently deployed by Erik ten Hag at Manchester United. He would actually be an upgrade on Casemiro in possession as he's more naturally suited to being a first phase ball circulator and progressor — a quality Manchester United desperately need, as made evident by their aggressive pursuit of Frenkie de Jong last summer.

Florentino Luís is also an exceptional ball-winner. The Portuguese midfielder is tenacious and possesses fantastic anticipation defensively, leading to a high volume of tackles and interceptions despite Benfica's high possession numbers.

Florentino Luís' defence — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in next 8 men's competitions per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

Florentino Luís' defensive metrics are truly elite. Ranking in the 93rd percentile for tackles, 99th percentile for tackles in the attacking third, 98th percentile for dribblers tackled, 99th percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled, 99th percentile for interceptions and 99th percentile for combined tackles and interceptions, Florentino is a high volume and high quality ball-winner. When one considers that Benfica generally have the vast majority of possession in a given game, these numbers become even more impressive and noteworthy. Florentino's defensive prowess is a big reason Benfica can face teams such as Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus and play a fairly expansive game because they know they have a proficient destroyer in midfield to stop the opposing forwards.

Florentino Luís reportedly has a €120 million release clause but would likely be available for less than that sum, although Benfica are tough negotiators and do not need to sell after making substantial profits from the sales of Darwin Núñez and Enzo Fernández. Even if he doesn't command the full €120 million, it will still take a sizeable fee to acquire his services. Additionally, he may already be too good to be a backup to Casemiro, even if just for a couple of seasons. Casemiro is still playing at a high level and has yet to begin slowing down, so any potential successor would likely have to spend 2-3 seasons simply providing cover for the Brazilian and playing in fewer games, which is a role that may be beneath Florentino Luís. However, off pure quality, he would be a fantastic successor to Casemiro.

MAXENCE CAQUERET

Olympique Lyonnais' Maxence Caqueret

Maxence Caqueret presents a very interesting option due to his ability to play as both a no. 6 and a no. 8. This means he could comfortably play alongside Casemiro as he also possesses the offensive capabilities to do so and has plenty of experience playing as a no. 8. The Lyon midfielder is an intelligent player with high tactical and positional understanding which supplements his strong technical abilities. Having turned 23 years old in February, he's likely to only improve as an all-round footballer.

Caqueret is remarkably press-resistant, which is, in part, influenced by his small frame as he stands at just 1.74m tall and weighs 63kg. He's extremely agile, turning away from defenders quickly and in the tightest of spaces. Ranking in the 87th percentile for successful take-ons, the Frenchman uses his low centre of gravity to escape pressure and manoeuvre beyond tackles. This press resistance is a quality currently lacking in Manchester United's midfield, so Caqueret would fit seamlessly into the no. 8 position as a starter whilst providing a reliable option as a no. 6 in the short, medium and long term.

Caqueret is an excellent tackler despite his small frame. He's brave and aggressive in the tackle, but is rarely reckless, ranking in the 79th percentile for yellow cards at just 0.12 per 90 — an impressive figure for a high volume tackler.

Maxence Caqueret's defence — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in Europe's big 5 leagues, UCL + UEL per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

Ranking in the 92nd percentile for tackles and 99th percentile for tackles in the final third, Caqueret evidently does much of his defensive work in more advanced positions, which is crucial for a possession-based system which requires counter-pressing and ball-winning high up the pitch; Caqueret excels in this regard. He also ranks in the 98th and 92nd percentiles for dribblers challenged and dribblers tackled respectively, lending credence to his highly-rated anticipation and defensive IQ. He can't overpower many players, therefore he must use his footballing intelligence to gain an upper hand in duels, both offensively and defensively.

Maxence Caqueret is an all-action midfielder. He's active in all areas of the pitch, using his energy and determination to be a factor in numerous ways. Many midfielders prefer to play in the half-spaces or off a specific side, but Caqueret is comfortable all over the pitch and his touchmap supports this.

Maxence Caqueret touchmap — source: smarterscout

Caqueret's touchmap shows his box-to-box qualities from midfield, as well as his set-piece volume as he ranks in the 81st percentile for corner kicks taken. He's also a versatile passer with a number of long balls from deep zones, which is especially valuable for United's pacey outlets in wide areas such as Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and Antony. The former U21 France international is a very well-rounded midfielder and has very few weaknesses in his game, most of which are purely physical.

Maxence Caqueret radar — source: Cannon Stats

In and out of possession, Caqueret is a highly efficient and effective midfielder and would provide an immediate upgrade to Erik ten Hag's midfield. As mentioned prior, he's a rather small player at 1.74m and is subsequently weak aerially. Whilst not the most important attribute for a holding midfielder and potential Casemiro replacement, it would still be a notable loss on what the Brazilian provides in that regard. That aside, he would be a fantastic option for Manchester United, and a far cheaper one than Florentino Luís which will be under consideration at Old Trafford considering the need for other positional reinforcements.

MANUEL UGARTE

Sporting CP's Manuel Ugarte

Sporting CP are likely set to field a number of offers for Manuel Ugarte in the summer. Liverpool reportedly hold significant interest in the tough tackling midfielder, whilst AC Milan and Tottenham Hotspur are also rumoured to be interested in acquiring his services. Ugarte is still just 21 years old so one would imagine that he's only scratching the surface of his overall potential. He's the prototypical ball-winning midfielder and any team with the necessary finances in need of some steel in their midfield would be wise to scout him extensively.

Manuel Ugarte's defence — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in next 8 men's competitions per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

These defensive statistics are genuinely overwhelming. Ugarte is evidently one of the best ball-winning midfielders in Europe at just 21 years old and the volume of outstanding defensive metrics may be hard to believe, such is the quality of the young Uruguayan. The number of defensive metrics in which he ranks in the high 90th percentile is unbelievable, comparable to that of Casemiro himself, albeit in a weaker league. He defends aggressively and never shirks away from a challenge, which is a level of bravery that not many midfielders possess. Despite receiving two yellow cards, he showed his defensive prowess during Sporting CP's penalty shootout victory away to Arsenal in the Europa League — a performance that doubtless caught the eyes of many scouts.

However, Manuel Ugarte is far from only a ball-winner. He is very comfortable in possession and operates as a high volume passer in the midfield.

Manuel Ugarte's passing — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in next 8 men's competitions per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

Ugarte is a reliable passer and keeps the ball circulating safely, understanding his own strengths and limitations. Ranking in the 99th percentile for both general pass completion percentage and medium pass completion percentage, as well as the 96th percentile for short pass completion percentage, the Uruguayan is rarely loose in possession and reliably picks out the safest pass. He's not a particularly progressive passer, nor does he need to be, as he's simply relied upon to circulate possession and avoid dangerous turnovers. As such, pairing him with a progressive deep-lying playmaker would effectively maximise his value in possession and allow him to focus on his strengths.

Ugarte is also a solid dribbler and ball-carrier for Sporting. He's no Frenkie de Jong in this respect, but he's composed in possession and does well to escape pressure, especially after having just won the ball which is evidently a common occurrence.

Manuel Ugarte's touches, take-ons + carries — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in next 8 men's competitions per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

Considering how many touches he has, especially in the middle third, this technical security is an important part of Ugarte's game. Ranking in the 93rd and 95th percentiles for take-ons attempted and successful take-ons, the Uruguay international is a press-resistant midfielder and is confident in his abilities to escape pressure through ball retention. He's also a strong carrier of the ball, using his energy and athleticism to get around the pitch and move the ball into advantageous positions. His tenacity comes in handy in this regard and he's able to glide past opponents and lay the ball on to more creative players whilst he primarily prepares for any loose balls or counter-pressing opportunities to keep the pressure on.

Ugarte reportedly has a €60 million release clause in his current contract — an enticing price in the current market of inflated fees. At that price, he's likely to garner plenty of interest throughout Europe in the summer, especially from the cash-laden Premier League. That may be a fee that's considered too steep for Manchester United considering he likely wouldn't be an immediate starter, but at his age, the club can afford to allow him to develop as Casemiro's understudy before he inevitably replaces the Brazilian in the long term. He also provides immediate high-quality squad depth to an oft-criticised United midfield, notably at a price point somewhere in-between the likely fees required for Maxence Caqueret and Florentino Luís. It wouldn't be a straightforward pursuit for the Red Devils with other clubs likely offering an immediate starting XI spot, but Ugarte is such a special midfielder that it would be foolish for the club not to at least consider a move for him.

MOISÉS CAICEDO

Brighton & Hove Albion's Moisés Caicedo

Moisés Caicedo has reached another level this season under Roberto De Zerbi. The Ecuadorian midfielder has looked like a veteran in Brighton's midfield with his ability to control the tempo of the game and organise his teammates, particularly in the buildup phase. His tactical understanding and positional awareness are crucial to his role in De Zerbi's system and he executes this role at a high level. But what exactly would Caicedo give Manchester United if he were to make the move?

Much like Caqueret, Moisés Caicedo can operate comfortably as both a no. 6 and no.8. As such, he could partner Casemiro and form a near-impenetrable midfield whilst also providing cover for the Brazil international when he's unavailable or in need of a rest. Versatility is evidently highly valued by Erik ten Hag and Caicedo certainly provides that. Unlike Caqueret, he brings Premier League experience in these roles and wouldn't face the potential adjusting pains that Caqueret may endure.

At just 21 years old, he still has room for improvement in a number of ways, despite already being one of the standout midfielders in England this season. Learning from a serial winner like Casemiro would have a massive impact on Caicedo's development, both on the field and as a dressing room presence. The intangibles are difficult to learn, but there would be few better teaches than Casemiro with his career achievements and natural leadership qualities. It would present a fantastic opportunity for both South Americans to teach and learn respectively.

Caicedo has shown his quality in a possession-based system as this Brighton side regularly dominate the ball and tend to buildup through the Ecuador international in central zones. He's incredibly comfortable on the ball even when faced with extensive pressure and can go on to complete a variety of passes.

Moisés Caicedo's passing — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in the English Premier League per 90

**statistics calculated during 2022/23 season

Caicedo is capable of making a variety of passes from all distances. He's often tasked with short, quick passes to help Brighton progress the ball through the phases. He's a volume passer and is secure with the ball, limiting dangerous turnovers from errant passes. However, his long pass accuracy is perhaps his most impressive trait. He's made nearly 82% of his long passes this season, ranking in the 98th percentile.

Moisés Caicedo long pass vs. Liverpool — source: DAZN

The above video shows Caicedo's ability to play difficult passes with opponents in close proximity, regardless of the distance of the pass. His passing range is genuinely top class and this shows his confidence in his technical abilities. Liverpool tend to press with so much intensity and organisation that it's difficult to break the press with a single pass, but that's what Caicedo is able to do here, finding an open teammate across the pitch.

The young Ecuadorian is also capable of playing out of pressure with his weaker foot. The following video is taken from the same game vs. Liverpool.

Moisés Caicedo weaker foot pass vs. Liverpool — source: DAZN

Caicedo receives the ball surrounded by Liverpool players and releases an inch-perfect first time pass with his left foot to an open teammate on the wing, completely beating the pressure from Jürgen Klopp's men. This level of composure is commonplace for the youngster and one can only imagine that such actions will become even easier for him as he continues to grow as a footballer. It will fascinating to see the player he could become with more experience at the highest level, both at club and international level.

Crucially, Caicedo is also fantastic defensively. His anticipation allows him to read the direction of play before using his tenacity and expert-timing to make a strong challenge. His role in shielding the defence is vital to how Brighton play as he's often partnered with players who are primarily offensive, technical footballers.

Moisés Caicedo's defence — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in the English Premier League per 90

**statistics calculated during 2022/23 season

As shown by the data, Caicedo is an active, high-volume tackler. He ranks in the mid-to-high 80th percentile for a number of tackling metrics, notably in his ability to tackle dribblers. He does the majority of his work in the middle third as he seeks to protect the backline from potential danger. However, he's also excellent at executing interceptions, ranking in the 92nd percentile for that metric. This exemplifies his ability to read the game and sniff out a threat before it can fully materialise. As a bonus, he's also excellent in the air despite standing at just 1.78m tall. He's won an impressive 65% of his aerial duels, placing him in 94th percentile. Both in and out of possession, Caicedo understands the game and has a high footballing IQ, all at the age of just 21. His potential is legitimately frightening and his versatility means he could slot into a number of systems and roles and fit in seamlessly.

Frustratingly for the club and its supporters, Manchester United had the chance to sign Caicedo in 2021 for a fee in the region of £4.5 million but baulked at the potential agent fees of the deal. Now, with the player being worth several times that sum, United will certainly see that as a significant missed opportunity. Any deal the 20-time English champions hope to strike for Caicedo will come at an enormous cost as Brighton have shown that they do not need to sell and would only allow their midfield starlet to move for a considerable fee. His ability to play alongside Casemiro whilst also providing cover will be attractive to United, but the finances involved in such a deal will certainly be considered before any move is made.

DECLAN RICE

West Ham United's Declan Rice

For a long time now, Declan Rice has been linked with a move away from West Ham United. Such a move has yet to materialise, but it appears as though the England international will finally make his move to one of England's 'big six' clubs in the summer. Much like Moisés Caicedo, Rice is comfortable playing as both a no. 6 and no. 8 and does so at an extremely high level. He has the ability to comfortably operate as ball-carrying no. 8 who acts as the team's primary volume passer. This is a role Manchester United need to fill in the summer and Rice would certainly be a candidate, whilst crucially acting as a potential option for the no. 6 role in place of Casemiro. This high-quality versatility is invaluable, especially to manager like Erik ten Hag who often moves players around depending on the situation and opponent.

Rice primarily operates in the left half-space; the precise zone Manchester United need a no. 8 to fill.

Declan Rice touchmap — source: smarterscout

Rice is capable of operating as an advanced midfielder in higher zones on the pitch, as well as playing as a first phase midfielder in buildup. The latter is particularly important for when he acts as a Casemiro replacement as much of his work will be in the buildup, controlling the tempo and initiating moves. He evidently has a preference for the left half-space as it maximises his field of vision and his passing lanes. However, as we've seen for England where he primarily plays as a holding midfielder in a single pivot, he's capable of moving into every zone and remaining comfortable in possession. As Casemiro often shuttles to different zones to cover teammates in Erik ten Hag's fluid system, this versatility is vital for any player who might replace the Brazilian in the heart of United's midfield. He also regularly plays as the deepest midfielder for West Ham, therefore he has experience in this role at a Premier League level and has often looked like one of the league's best midfielders.

Rice is incredibly press-resistant. His elite ball-carrying combined with his solid height and weight at 1.85m and 80kg make it extraordinarily difficult get him off the ball, especially when he has brilliant feet too and is comfortable with the ball under pressure. The Englishman ranks in the 87th percentile in progressive carries and carries into final third, as well as the 92nd percentile in progressive carrying distance. These are incredibly impressive figures, especially in a team that doesn't tend to dominate possession often. Rice makes the most of the touches he does have and progresses the ball extremely well in those situations.

Declan Rice dribble vs. AEK Larnaca — source: BT Sport

Declan Rice carry vs. Arsenal — source: beIN Sports

As seen in the above videos, Declan Rice possess both the quick feet and powerful running to escape pressure and retain possession for his team. He has excellent awareness of his surroundings and the technical ability to evade a press. He also has the understanding of when to slow down and speed up play, depending on the situation and potential passing options. This is a level of understanding that is difficult to teach, especially for players who are already at a first-team level, but Declan Rice possesses that footballing IQ.

As mentioned prior, the West Ham captain is an adept and consistent volume passer. For both club and country, he's often relied upon to circulate possession and initiate attacks from deep. He's capable of every pass in the book and often looks to play progressive passes between the lines.

Declan Rice's passing — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in Europe's big 5 leagues, UCL + UEL per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

As the data shows, Declan Rice is a high-level passer, completing all manner of passes expected from a midfielder. West Ham are far from a possession-based side, but Rice still manages to accumulate numbers akin to those of midfielders in Europe's best possession-based teams. Notably, he ranks in the 92nd percentile for pass completion percentage, 99th percentile for medium pass completion percentage and 90th percentile for long passes completed. Manchester United are a side that often switch play following overloads, therefore Rice's passing range would be particularly valuable. He also ranks in the 92nd and 86th percentiles for passes into the final third and progressive passes, showing his ability to be a penetrative passer on top of being a ball circulator.

Rice's skillset makes him capable of undertaking a number of roles at the level required for a club like Manchester United and that's also true of his defensive capabilities.

Declan Rice's defence — source: FBREF.com (powered by Opta)

*compared with positional peers in Europe's big 5 leagues, UCL + UEL per 90

**statistics calculated over the last 365 days

Rice is a very solid and efficient defender, ranking in the 95th percentile for challenges lost at just 0.50 per 90. He isn't the high volume tackler that Casemiro and Ugarte are, but he reads opposition attacks remarkably well, as made evident by his interception metrics as he prefers to cut out danger before needing to make a tackle. However, when he does need to make a tackle, he's more than capable. His size and athleticism allow him to cover significant ground in an instant and stop opposition ball carriers. Rice is also very solid in the air, winning 62% of his aerial duels — amongst the best in the league for his position. He's a remarkably well-rounded midfielder and undertakes a number of duties fearlessly and exceptionally.

Declan Rice would bring so many qualities to Manchester United's midfield. His technical abilities have been extensively covered, but he offers a number of intangible qualities too. At 24 years old, he's a natural leader, already wearing the captain's armband for his club. He's a great dressing room presence and leads through both his words and his play. The leadership that Casemiro offers would therefore not be missed with the presence of Rice. The England international is an expensive option, likely commanding a fee north of £70 million, but his ability and experience justify that price and he's still in the beginning of his prime years.

CONCLUSION

Manchester United have a number of avenues through which to tackle their Casemiro problem. This article has attempted to look at the best and most realistic options and what they would entail. If the club are spending big, it would be advisable to sign someone who can partner Casemiro as a no. 8, but also fill in for him when he’s unavailable. In this article alone, Maxence Caqueret, Moisés Caicedo and Declan Rice have been shown to be capable of performing such a role.

My personal choice would be Declan Rice. He possesses the leadership qualities of a player like Casemiro and also provides the Premier League and international experience that are valuable to a club like Manchester United. An extremely well-rounded midfielder who ticks every box required for the type of midfielder Erik ten Hag wants as a no. 8 and is more than capable of sliding into the Casemiro role.

Whichever direction United choose to go in, it is vital that they find a reliable solution to the potential unavailability of Casemiro because, as has been seen throughout the season, his absence makes them a completely different side.